@JonahLupton: Insanely bad day for the markets... $NQ trying to bounce off the 30d ema and .236 fibs This is how statistically rare today is when lookin...

@JonahLupton 3 信息等级 3 发布：2026-06-05T19:37 抓取：2026-06-05 23:19

🔗 原文链接

宏观美股

摘要

推特用户JonahLupton称市场经历极差交易日，列出多只ETF的日波动标准差及统计罕见性，如XLK下跌3.8个标准差（1/13822概率），QQQ下跌3.6个标准差（1/6285概率）。

客观事实

XLK当日跌幅达3.8个标准差，罕见程度1/13822
QQQ跌幅3.6个标准差，罕见程度1/6285
SMH跌幅3.5个标准差，罕见程度1/4299

XLK QQQ SMH SPHB SPRX ARKK SPY IWM

原文

Insanely bad day for the markets... $NQ trying to bounce off the 30d ema and .236 fibs

This is how statistically rare today is when looking at the standard deviations of these ETF moves using daily vol with a 90d lookback:

$XLK -3.8σ 1 in 13,822
$QQQ -3.6σ 1 in 6,285
$SMH -3.5σ 1 in 4,299
$SPHB -3.5σ 1 in 4,299
$SPRX -3.0σ 1 in 741
$ARKK -2.9σ 1 in 536
$SPY -2.9σ 1 in 536
$IWM -2.8σ 1 in 391

likes: 53 | retweets: 5 | replies: 12 | views: 21247