“Samsung Strike Fears Pour Fuel on Already-Burning Prices”… Memory Surge Cycle Set to Run Longer

With a strike at Samsung Electronics’ DS (Semiconductor) Division becoming increasingly likely, observers say the labor action could serve as a second catalyst that further inflames DRAM and NAND flash prices, which are already on a sharp uptrend. Major market research firms have previously forecast that memory contract prices will post their largest-ever quarterly increase in Q2. Analysts warn that the supply-side risk from a strike, coinciding with the cycle’s approach toward peak, could amplify the shock to the market well beyond current expectations.

According to industry sources on the 15th, a scenario is emerging in which strike risk at Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor union delivers a second shock to this year’s memory pricing cycle. Until now, domestic and overseas market research firms and investment banks had projected that DRAM and NAND prices would peak in Q3 before gradually stabilizing from Q4 onward. The breakdown in Samsung’s labor-management negotiations, however, has introduced a new variable.

After Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor union rejected the company’s proposal for additional negotiations the previous day, the situation has effectively moved toward strike action. Samsung’s major semiconductor customers are reportedly already taking pre-emptive steps to mitigate the risk. “Regardless of whether the strike actually happens, the current situation itself is already acting as a psychological driver pushing DRAM and NAND prices higher,” a semiconductor industry source said. “It is making Big Tech firms and PC and smartphone manufacturers — already struggling with memory shortages — even more anxious.”

According to earlier reports from major foreign media, Samsung semiconductor customers including Apple and HP have inquired about the impact of a potential strike, while HBM (high-bandwidth memory) customers are also closely watching for developments. Samsung Electronics has been attempting to reassure key customers by stating that “there will be no supply disruptions,” but some customers remain concerned about production setbacks and further upside in DRAM and NAND prices.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, characterized the situation as “pouring fuel on an already-burning market.” The global memory market has entered a “structural supply cliff” phase, in which supply cannot keep up with demand amid an explosion in AI infrastructure spending. A significant portion of DRAM output from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been allocated to HBM for AI servers, reducing supply of commodity DRAM and NAND. On top of that, U.S. hyperscalers are now offering large prepayments to secure capacity for AI datacenter buildouts.

According to KB Securities, if 30–40% of union members participate in the strike, the global supply disruption is estimated to reach 3–4% for DRAM and 2–3% for NAND. While these percentages may appear modest in absolute terms, experts argue that under current undersupply conditions, they could act as a decisive catalyst to drive prices sharply higher. Global DRAM inventory currently stands at only 4–6 weeks of demand.

This could extend the peak phase of memory prices well beyond previous forecasts. Major overseas investment banks and market research firms had built their supply-demand outlooks around the assumption that DRAM and NAND prices would peak in Q3 before gradually stabilizing from Q4. But if the Samsung semiconductor strike materializes, the peak could be pushed beyond Q4, potentially having an additional pass-through effect on consumer prices. TrendForce projects that the memory supply shortage will persist through 2027.

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